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CONTENTS: 20 NOV. 2001 WILL LDK FORM A GOVERNMENT AND WITH WHOM?
Now that the first unofficial results have been made public, political parties in Kosovo will have to start their calculations. LDK with less then 50 seats in the parliament will not be able to for the government by itself without entering a coalition with other parties. Which are the realistic possibilities for coalitions, reported Koha Ditore on page one. A coalition with AAK and other political parties that will be present in the parliament or with the Serbs? LDK has won the most votes on the 17 November elections but not enough to form a government. While experts give their evaluations for possible coalitions in reality all options remain open. What does the Constitutional Framework say? Kosovo's president is elected by a secret vote by the parliament. the presidential candidate can be appointed by the political party that has ensured most votes in the Parliament or any of the political parties that have at least 25 seats. According to o preliminary result only LDK and PDK fulfill the criteria to nominate a presidential candidate. Constitutional Framework states that Kosovo's President is elected by a 2/3 vote of the deputies in the parliament. in this case 80 deputies are needed to vote for one of the presidential candidates. However, if after two votes the presidential candidate is not elected the third voting in the parliament will elect the candidate with majority of the votes. if at the session when the president is being elected are present the whole 120 candidates then 61 votes are needed to vote and elect the president. According to the present results of the 17 November elections Kosovo's Parliament will have: LDK has won the majority of the votes and from the preliminary results it has won 48 seats in the parliament. this means that to have majority in the parliament it needs an extra 13 seats from other parties. Election experts say that it is still to early to learn as to which of the small political parties have won a seat in the parliament. the Constitutional Framework guarantees ten seats for the minorities and already is known that coalition Vatan and LKÇK have won one sat each if LDK joins these votes it will have enough to elect a president. this option is very possible giving the fact that the voting will secret. Knowing the differences between LDK and LKÇK and the fact that Vatan chairman declared earlier during the election campaign that they are not interested in entering a coalition with LDK they remain short of five seats and the possibility of LDK electing a president will be very difficult. LDK might enter a coalition with all the smaller minority parties excluding the Serbs, however this coalition might be a unstable and could disperse at any given moment. Experts believe that LDK would try another option a coalition with AAK which is very possible. AAK as apolitical entity has constantly stated that they support the co-governing by the three main political parties. The dilemma lies on the fact that is LDK ready to co-govern, even though Rugova stated on Sunday that he is ready to share ministerial post with other political parties. nevertheless a coalition between LDK, AAK and LDK supporting parties that won seats in the parliament could elect a president and this would be a much more stable government but it would take great sacrifices from the LDK. From what we know regarding AAK inner relations it hardly believable that AAK would vote for Ibrahim Rugova as Kosovo's President. only if LDK changes the presidential candidate then surely AAK nd PDK would vote for the LDK presidential candidate. There is another possibility a silent coalition with the Serbs who will have 22 seats in the parliament which would ensure LDK the needed majority. Until now at LDK have clearly stated that they have not even looked into this possibility because LDK believed that they would not need a coalition. Some Serb sources have left the space for a possible Serb coalition. Experts believe that giving the fact that votes are secret the Serbs would vote for LDK giving the fact the antagonism that the Serbs have toward the PDK and AAK leaders. However, the Serb delegates who are closely tied with Belgrade it is believed they will try to obstruct all other processes. The other option which is less possible is the fact that PDK who has gained the right to nominate a presidential candidate would do so. However, there is no possible coalition that would enable PDK to elect the president. The PDK-AAK coalition brings 35 seats, and this coalition plus Serbs cannot even be imagined, while PDK-AAK and all of the other minorities also cannot assemble 61 seats which is the minimum for a YES for electing a presidential candidate. The first freely and democratically elected Kosovo's Parliament will meet for the first time by the end of November or early December.
Koha Ditore on page three carried a report by Veton Surroi commenting on the future of Kosovo. 1.While I was walking down the street with a German expert of the elections, I was filled with a doze of pride, which one might rarely have here in Kosovo. It is elections day in Prishtina and they resemble the thirtieth elections held in a Lutheran German province, in which people combine three things, going to the church, voting and having lunch with the family members. The second elections following the war, which were free and democratic proved the great reservoir of Kosovo's population, political parties and civil society about developing democracy. With this, the Kosovars turn into a model for the Albanian world, in which the elections in Albania and Macedonia were severely violated. No neighbors of Kosovo have held better elections. 2.The elections are over and we are now facing the results. Firstly, we compare the number of the voters from the local elections with the number of the local elections. We come to the conclusion that the number has decreased. This decrease is a warning of demographic and democratic movement of the Kosovar electorate. On one hand, the number of voters will increase because a great part of the youth has not yet turned eighteen, while on the other hand, a great number of people will ask themselves if there is any point in them voting again and if they are making a difference and accomplishing anything by voting. This is normal in democracy. With a 62% of voters, Kosovo is ahead of many democratic countries because it has a tradition of free and democratic elections. Then we have the results of the elections where we see that the Kosovar political scene is pluralist, but more consolidated now. We have the Albanian main political block, which consists of the LDK, PDK and AAK. After these come the strong Serb block, which is the third political force in Kosovo's parliament, and another block, which consists of a rainbow of minorities, which are Bosnians, Roma, Ashkali and Turks. And last but not least, we have an Albanian rainbow of minorities, which includes parties like PSHDK, PLK and LKCK, which might be considered to be a great movement or an 'Albanian rainbow'. But it is not yet sure whether this party will enter the parliament. 3.A majority of the Albanians, who entered the elections made several corrections in their political lives. The LDK, which won a majority of the votes during the local elections, is about to loose approximately 10% of the votes. The LDK maybe truly did win in the local elections due to the immaturity of other political parties and the arrogance of their political leaders. However, the LDK just might loose during these elections due to its immaturity and arrogance during the electoral campaigns regarding the paprika, various jams, bulls and calves of the Kosovar florae and fauna. It seems as if the PDK did not change its position at all even though its leaders hoped that the party would win the sympathy of the Kosovars by engaging the Humanist Flora Brovina to run for president. Although the AAK showed its great work in introducing its image during these elections and increased the number of voters, it would have to double the electorate in order to be able to reach the PDK for example. If we would add up the votes in the 'block of the great' we would see that they won 79% of the places in the parliament, which is not very surprising because even these elections meant votes for the leaders, whose faces we saw on the posters in the streets everyday. On the other hand the great number of the votes, which the small Albanian parties received showed that the Kosovar electorate does not trust only the leaders of the great parties and this might have consequences in the future. 4.The newest of these elections were Serbs, respectively their participation in the parliament. The 'Povratak' coalition will be the third political force in the parliament and will have 21 places. This fact fundamentally changes the Kosovar policy. On one hand, based on the Constitutional Framework, Serbs have assured one Ministry place (another one goes for the minorities), which proves an imposed coalition of governance for all parties that aim toward establishing the government. This means that regardless if they want or not, the great Albanian political parties would have to enter a coalition with Serbs. If this coalition is not formalized, then it is up to the LDK to enter a coalition with other political parties in order to be able to establish a government and elect Rugova for president.
6.The word consensus means the beginning of worries and troubles in the future governance within the Constitutional Framework. The first part of the Albanians' consensus is whether they want an effective government. And if so, then for what? A government that will keep on repeating that it wants the 'formal acknowledgement of Kosovo's Independence' is not worth a bit. If this is the case, then the government is attempting to hide that it is not capable of dealing with the retirees pensions, KEK, creating the conditions for investments, macroeconomic politic and the development of livestock. confrontations with the international community will be topic one during press briefings. The second part of the consensus lies between Albanians and Serbs. The act of Serbs entering the parliament is a possibility to solve the open problems of the Serbs. At the same time, this would also mean that Kosovo Serbs should legitimately acknowledge the Kosovar land and the Kosovar institutions. If Kosovo Serbs aim to place 'bridge watchers' in Kosovo's parliament during parliamentarian processes, then it would not be possible for the parliament and the government to solve their problems. The third part of the consensus lies between the Kosovars and UNMIK. The Constitutional Framework brought a specific situation of governance in which the absolute mandate of UNMIK can annul any of the Kosovar decisions. During the nest three years, the Kosovar new government will have to consult with UNMIK regarding every priority or decision. 7.We can continue with the list of troubles, which Kosovo is facing
during its parliamentary life. It is important that for the first time in
our history, these troubles will find a solution in the parliament, which
we have elected ourselves. The fact that this parliament cannot make as
much decisions only shows our historic level and that we should be aware
of the fact that we are learning how to gain a democratic state. The same
as students who need additional help, the parliament and the institutions
that result from them will be a type of a special
school.' Zëri carried on page one a column by its editor-in-chief Blerim Shala who wrote: We did not have to wait very long. With high and low contradictory percentages by our main political the waiting ended one Monday night with the announcing of preliminary results by OSCE. Election results on Monday night met with another mathematical equation which was referred to KEK and the situation of collapse again: Thus with less than 20% of electricity a day, we all are the biggest losers. Kosovo's Parliament and government will start to function with the KEK burden on the backs. May god help them. Today's announcing of the results of the 17 November elections should create the best conditions for the forming of the promises uttered by the three biggest political parties: The promise of co-governing. Someone might say that there was very little sincerity regarding this issue during the electorate campaign. this message was sent to the voters, because they await something like that to happen from LDK, ODK and AAK when it is clearly seen that there are no political differences between the three of them. The preliminary OSCE election results and the possible parliamentary coalition between the three political parties will be direct result of the votes cast by the Kosovars who in reality were mostly interested in forming a strong and stabile government in Kosovo. our political parties should not fear this coalition. A coalition government makes winners of all the political parties and moreover it makes winners of all of us. In this case the words that were uttered by local and international politicians that in this elections Kosovo will gain the most will at the end come true.
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