Media Analysis 19 September 2003

• Shala: Realistic approach (Zëri)
  
• Assembly is officially silent, leaders will decide at dinner with Holkeri (Koha)
  
• Busek: Stability Pact is interested in helping Kosovo (Zëri)
  
• Editorial: Clinton (Kosova Sot)
  
• Ibrahim Rexhepi: Profession - striker (Koha Ditore)

Belgrade Update

• Clinton arrived in Kosovo (RTS)
  
• The Strategy of the Stalemate (VREME)
  

Shala: Realistic approach (Zëri)
Zëri commented today on Brussels attitude towards current developments in the Balkans region.

Neither underestimation, nor overestimation, but a realistic approach from the west is necessary in order to achieve a common aim of the West and countries of Balkans for a long-term stabilization.

As we know, war in the former Yugoslavia was begun by Serbia, but its dangerous form came because of the ignorance of Brussels and the capitols of the Western countries. It was known that the parties at war had no atomic weapons; therefore they thought that the war would last a short time and be without consequences for the continent. In the other hand, the political and military potential of the EU was overestimated. Then European leaders thought that it would require only few visits to Zagreb, Belgrade and later in Prishtina, and local politicians would give up in the face of logical arguments and unfounded threats.

The lesson that brought a realistic approach took thousands of civilian lives and boosted the frustration throughout the EU. It was understood that without the NATO pact and the US, the war could not be halted in Bosnia, and later in Kosovo. Without the NATO air campaign against Serbia, Milosevic would not be removed from power either. In current circumstances, it seems that the lack of a realistic approach and under appreciation and over appreciation is still present. Today's Brussels is still carrying on underestimating the real reasons for the wars in former Yugoslavia. Overestimation is related to the role of the Western political and military presence, as well as to the political elite here and in particular in Serbia. A realistic approach requires Brussels to give up from the stance that the status quo should be preserved and the belief that the democratization of Kosovo and Serbia will automatically resolve the problems.

Assembly is officially silent, leaders will decide at dinner with Holkeri (Koha)
Koha Ditore claims today that the Kosovo Assembly has missed an opportunity to take an official position on the issue of dialogue between Prishtina and Belgrade, and thus has paved the way for SRSG Harri Holkeri to get the 'green light' from Kosovar leaders at Friday's official dinner with Kosovar leaders.

Distinctions amongst three major Albanian parties it seems to be prime reason why this higher institution did not have unique stance. By not adopting either a declaration or resolution and by not authorizing government to begin compiling a platform for talks with Serbia, Assembly in reality transferred to the political leaders responsibility to decide about these talks.

Citing reliable sources, Koha Ditore claims that the SRSG Holkeri is expecting the Kosovar leadership to agree to his role as leader and de facto mediator in the dialogue. But according to a local source close to the dinner, Kosovar leaders have no knowledge at all that in this meeting it would be discussed the dialogue. Friday's dinner 'is not a pompous meeting' Koha Ditore quoted as saying its source and added that in that meeting is expected to discuss about security, political situation and economy and in particularly electricity.

Meanwhile, it was acknowledged that Holkeri was interested in the results of yesterday's assembly meeting. Chiefs of parliamentary groups and deputies said that there is need for dialogue with Belgrade, 'but we should know about it in advance.'

Dailies report that Sabri Hamiti, chairman of the LDK parliamentary group, as saying that UN Security Council Resolution 1244 leaves Kosovo without a political status. Hamiti also claims that 1244 impedes the development of Kosovo, and that the Constitutional Framework is too 'narrow' to address the need for self-government in Kosovo.

Epoka e Re reports that Ramush Haradinaj, leader of the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), has repeated the request of his party for the Kosovo Assembly to declare the independence of Kosovo.

'We have two choices. One is to declare Kosovo a sovereign and independent country in this assembly, and the other is to prepare a platform for compiling the constitution and to announce a referendum,' Haradinaj added.

Busek: Stability Pact is interested in helping Kosovo (Zëri)
Zëri quotes Erhard Busek, Stability Pact Coordinator for South-Eastern Europe, as saying that his organization is 'very interested' in seeing political progress in Kosovo, in the sense of an immediate start to dialogue between Prishtina and Belgrade.

'It is very necessary to see political progress. As for the political situation, the Stability Pact is very interested in the dialogue between Prishtina and Belgrade to begin, and we are making preparations to assist in this dialogue,' Busek added.

Erhard Busek is in Kosovo as a member of a two-day conference for the Business Foundation in Kosovo. The two-day conference was organized by the Office of the Stability Pact of Kosovo together with the BAC (Business Advisory Council) with the institutions of Kosovo.

'It is in our interest to see the region together and not separately,' Busek said.

UNMIK Pillar IV Head Nikolaus Lambsdorff said at the opening of the seminar that the unresolved status for Kosovo should not discourage international businessman to invest in Kosovo.

'For the time being, there are two governments in Kosovo; the Kosovar institutions and UNMIK with its withdrawn force, but this doesn't that we are dealing with two opposite governments that disclaims each other. On the contrary, we work together," said Lambsdorff.

According to Besim Beqaj, Kosovar representative at the Stability Pact, comparing Kosovo to other places in the region, when it comes to the economic framework, 'if not ahead, than at a same level with them in the region'.

Representatives from Greece, Germany, Italy and other states from the region participating in the seminar.

Editorial: Clinton (Kosova Sot)
Kosova Sot commented on today's visit of ex-United States President Bill Clinton.

Former US President Bill Clinton has come to visit Kosovo for the second time. The message of the president could be perceived in different ways, but the essence is related to Clinton's efforts in 1999 and what our leaders are doing today. By coincidence, Kosovar politicians proved the day before that is difficult for them to find common language when it comes to the key issues, such as the dialogue with Serbs. The visit of the former American President recalls to us that the international community, led by the US, acted quickly and prevented a tragedy in the heart of Europe. In one way military intervention was a miracle and Albanians are particularly obligated to the Americans. As an indirect response to modern humanity, during the four years of the international administration, Kosovar politicians have had always disagreements, divergences on key issues, skepticism, clumsiness and lack of new ideas to go farther. Clinton's visit should serve as a boost to the sense of responsibility and a clean-up of the political consciousness of our establishment. Kosovars will govern Kosovo one day, but this day will be delayed if we do not work together for our future. If one leader says that we are a state, another one says that we should declare a state, and another one announces a moratorium, how we can we have a common language? The visit of Clinton, a person who played a significant part in our history, could return us to those grave days when Kosovo became a ruin and its people were totally expelled. By remembering those times, perhaps our politicians will experience a catharsis, which they really need. Kosovo has suffered a lot because of the dictatorial and monstrous regime. Therefore, by recalling the decision of his administration to save us and its excellent work, we could avoid the suffering that could happen to us.

Ibrahim Rexhepi: Profession - striker (Koha Ditore)
In an opinion piece for Koha Ditore, economy columnist Ibrahim Rexhepi claims that if 'the impression is created that everything can be gained with strikes and protests, then this form of reaction would become a part of our daily lives, and the Government would work under stress, expecting the opposition of workers'.

The miners of Stan Trg were on strike for twelve days and they won an assistance of 210 euros per person. They forced the Ministry of Work and Social Welfare and the Kosovo Government to speed up the promulgation of the document that would enable the immature retirement of mineworkers who are older than 50. Whereas, other workers don't have such beneficences. In fact, even mineworkers from different mines throughout Kosovo don't have such assistance. And it is exactly these mineworkers and workers who have started saying more often that going on strike is worth it. We are going to win something, they say.

Behind this belief hides the danger of creating the logics of pressure, intimidation and blackmail in Kosovo. In that case it would become a permanently unstable region and always threatened by strikes and protests, whereas the government work under the stress of which workers are going to go on strike and how to fulfill their demands. Or it is going to find ad-hoc solutions, which aren't always good, and it wouldn't have time to build a stable social system.

A slight forgetfulness has forced the other mineworkers of Kosovo to think that they must go on strike in order to gain something. The government should have at least mention the other mineworkers, to show that it knows about their problems, and also show its offers for assistance.

It cannot be said that the Government is ignoring the other mineworkers, but it realistically acted under the pressure of the strike of Stan Trg miners and slightly with emotions for their decades-long sacrifice.

In fact, mineworkers from Stan Trg are mainly from Shala e Bajgorës, or the other surrounding villages and areas near Mitrovica. In those areas the unemployment rate is somewhat higher than zero, there is no agriculture, hardly any farming, and business cannot be developed because the population there has a low level of purchasers.

Given such a situation, it would be very reasonable if the abovementioned assistance were turned into a permanent assistance.

However, in all these situations, we must not forget the other mineworkers who have been unemployed for years now, and whose health is deteriorating although they live in much richer areas than Stan Trg, the Colony of Miners, First Tunnel, or the whole region of Shala e Bajgorës. They also need assistance, or some word of hope and condolence, so that they no longer think that the Kosovo Government, or the Prime Minister, has forgotten them, and that that is why they must go on strike. If the financial possibilities are limited, then at least they could be told that there is going to be a solution in the future.

There is always going to be social unrest in Kosovo. This is not something new, because the same thing happens in other more developed countries. Workers, especially those who work in institutions financed by the budget, will always believe that they deserve more. They will apply pressure on the budget and the government, and the latter is not always willing to give a pleasing answer to the workers. This is why there are unions and this is why there is a negotiating process and the search for solutions and compromises in order to avoid the strike as the ultimate instrument for applying pressure.

But when the union is unorganized, and the government says the last thing first (there is no money), then rebellion comes as a result. And around all this turmoil there could be leadership ambitions, or ambitions to create a cult or launch individuals as factors with influence. And in one word this is anarchy and nothing else.

The whole problem rests in the incapability to create the material mantle of a social problem that is the main pillar of the sustainability of the government. And exactly in this segment the future is not so bright. There is going to be a growing rate of unemployment. The process of privatization will remove from work even those who have believed that they have a job that they can hold on to until retirement days. Disappointed from such processes, this category of workers is a permanent potential for strikes. On the other hand, no Kosovar institution is capable of offering them assistance. Even the Kosovo Trust Agency won't care much about their fate, as much as it will care about the delays in the process of privatization.

We must however say that there is very little room for maneuvering. Maybe the only solution would be institutional action and the functioning of the system (government-employer-union). Solutions for a certain group of workers, or the selection of workers without any criteria, will always result in dissatisfaction among those who are forgotten.

Stable solutions will turn the government into an efficient and stable institution, and it would avoid situations where it wouldn't only carry out the duty of a fireman - react only when the fire breaks out.

Belgrade Update

Clinton arrived in Kosovo (RTS)
The former US President William Clinton arrived this morning in Kosovo to receive an honorary PhD from the University of Prishtina and to visit the US soldiers at the Bondsteel Army Base near Urosevac/Ferizaj. President of Kosovo Ibrahim Rugova greeted Clinton: 'This is an important and happy day, because our great friend who has done so much for Kosovo is here.' Rugova said that difference from Clinton's last visit, four years ago, when he saw Kosovo in ruins, he would now see a reconstructed and very dynamic Kosovo. Rugova said that he would ask Clinton to support Kosovo's independence bid. 'It is a great honor for me to be in Kosovo again and see things that have changed so much,' said Clinton.

The Strategy of the Stalemate (VREME)
For more than four years since the entrance of NATO forces in Kosovo and the 'victorious' withdrawal of the Yugoslav Army, the ground for the beginning of the official dialogue between Serbia and the former autonomous province of Kosovo, which is under the UN protectorate, is being speedily prepared. The new UNMIK Head, Finn Harri Holkeri, is already packing suitcases for New York where the Contact Group, made up of representatives of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the US, will meet on 23 September. It was announced in Belgrade this Tuesday that the Serbian negotiating team will be headed by Nebojsa Covic. However, Albanian political leaders are not managing so far to agree on whether they should talk with Belgrade at all. Still, one should not doubt that, like in the past, Albanian leaders would comply at the last moment to the request by the big powers once it is clearly adduced.

Personnel, Personnel: A special problem in connection with the composition of the negotiating teams represents the issue of the place for the Kosovo Serb representatives. Although Holkeri's clearly stated wish is that they, as Kosovo citizens, should be included in the Kosovo delegation, they have no intention of doing so. Raska-Prizren bishop Artemije said that Kosovo Serbs 'cannot be on the other end of the table because Serbia should resolve their problems.' Rada Trajkovic has brought forward a similar stand, but Milorad Todorovic, the co-minister in Rexhepi's government, has slightly opened the door for Serb participation in the Kosovo team. He said they could accept this if they received support from the Belgrade government, Serbian Orthodox Church and KP, and if they previously 'resolve the personal dilemma whether they really wish this.' Taking into account the above mentioned stands by bishop Artemije and Trajkovic, it will be difficult to receive accord of two out of three factors, not to mention the personal dilemmas. On the other hand, a cynic would notice that it probably suits more the Belgrade negotiating team for the 'difficult' Kosovo Serbs to be on the other side of the table and break the unity of the opposing team, than vice versa.

This is not the end to the personnel problems. The Head of the Judiciary and Human Rights Department with the CCK Vladimir Bozovic has announced that the negotiators should have the confirmation by the ICTY that they are not under investigation for war crimes, where he aimed first of all at Thaçi and Ramush Haradinaj. Thaçi's close associate and former caucus whip Fatmir Limaj is already in The Hague, while Haradinaj is already infamous even among Albanians. It is known, however, that the ICTY doesn't issue such assurances, so Bozovic's idea should be understood more as pageantry than as conditioning. Apart from this, a cynical mind would notice again that it is better to have a potential indictee on the other end of the table than a person with a impeccable biography. Namely, the angels and saints are by nature resistant to pressure and are not inclined to any compromise. So, with what kind of baggage are Serbia and Kosovo entering the dialogue?

Heavy Baggage: Let's start from Serbia that has a certain moral privilege since ethnic cleansing of Serbs, Roma and other minorities had been performed right before the face of the international community, and since the remaining population is living in some sort of reservation, besieged and without basic human rights. However, this privilege has been seriously encroached with the crimes of the former regime against Albanians in the course of 1998 and 1999, as well as with the fact that the present authorities have 'generously' handed over to the ICTY the establishment of these crimes. Had it been, for example, established before domestic courts who had killed so many people and buried them in Batajnica and similar places, the Serbian negotiating position would have been better at the start. This way, both sides have the same right to fling at each other collective guilt and double standards.

The other problem is that part of the public opinion here still sees Kosovo as part of Serbia that is under foreign occupation, equally implying both NATO and Albanians as occupiers. Certain politicians, but also the media, one could expect to know better, have been for years warming up the hope that one of them will leave some day or other, and then we will ourselves kick out easily the others. Those who know better the situation in Kosovo - this goes for the Serbs there - are silent or support this warped image. To make things worse, it seems that the political elite, shaken with scandals and loaded with internal disputes, sees the only factor of unity in the Kosovo card, so it is ready to throw it endlessly on the table. When one takes into account that next year is an election one, it is clear that the readiness by the Serbian side for any kind of compromise is minimal, at least for some time.

In fact, Belgrade's only interest in accepting the dialogue with Albanians is to formally sit at the table in order to act cooperatively before the West.

The Albanian delegation will also travel to the talks with equally heavy bags. Partially literate fighters and self-proclaimed heroes, conspicuous businessmen from the Diaspora, and generally people who wouldn't want any kind of normal system, are dominating over the Kosovo political life. According to the image they are trying to produce because there is neither work nor electricity in Kosovo since 1999, because the economy is not functioning and the land isn't cultivated, Serbs and the international community are to be blamed, while all problems will be resolved as soon as Kosovo becomes independent. UNMIK's attempts to build parliamentary democracy in Kosovo have incurred into a caricature: since all the three important Albanian parties are represented in the government, there is no opposition in the parliament; instead, the government and parliament 'act' as opposition to UNMIK, transfer their responsibility and deal exclusively with state issues for which they are not in charge. There is neither democracy nor democratic dialogue in that system, while the only game in town is to show off one's heroic chest. One should add that 2004 is also an election year in Kosovo.

Apart from that, one gets the impression that Albanian leaders, despite the joint 'Independence now!' are not at all in a hurry to open the story on Kosovo's final status. And why would they? They have a president, they have a government and a parliament, they have NATO to protect them from the real and supposed Serb pretensions, and others pay the receipts. In that sense one should understand Rexhepi's recent statement that the beginning of the dialogue with Belgrade 'is obviously Holkeri's priority, but not that of the Kosovo government.'

So it comes out that the only 'entity' that really cares to find a mutual acceptable solution for Kosovo is the international community, i.e. NATO, EU, US and UN, who are tired from building a 'democratic, multiethnic society' in Kosovo and wider, so they are trying to find an exit strategy. At least due to how things are now, they should not hope very much that Serbs and Albanians would help them in this.