UNMIK on
AIR
For two years Serbia is without the president of the Republic, since the last man of Slobodan Milosevic regime had finished his mandate and as one of the five indicted people for war crimes committed in Kosovo, have been sent to the International Criminal Tribunal in Den Haag. Since then Serbia have been trying for three times to elect a new president but thanks to electoral system that required turnout higher then 50 percents as well to permanent political instability, the president was not elected. Couple of months ago the Assembly adopted amendments on the electoral law by which the turn out of 50% is not a mandatory in order to elect president. The president becomes the candidate that gets simple majority in second round.
Hello and welcome. This is UNMIK on AIR programme,
On Sunday, June the 13th Serbia will vote for one
of 15 candidates. Most serious candidates are Tomislav Nikolic from Radical
Party (SRS), Boris Tadic from Democratic Party (DS) and Dragan Marsicanin from
Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS).
Currently on power in Serbia is the coalition of four
parties with Vojislav Kostunica from DSS as the Prime Minister. Although
radical won the biggest number of votes on parliamentary elections, Democratic
Party of Serbia, G 17 Plus, Serbian Renewal Movement and New Serbia formed the
Government. These kinds of results create extremely uncertain situation
regarding the results of presidential elections.
Srdjan Bogosdavljevic the head of Belgrade Media Research
“Strategic Marketing” says that the only certain thing is that Serbia gets its
president in the second round.
CUT 1 Track 0.19 Serbia gets its president because
election system now makes impossible not to get it. The only question is if it
gets it in first round or in second. It’s obvious that we are going to have
second round. The results show that Tomislav Nikolic firmly stands on a first
place and it is expected that he’ll get between 33% and 35 % votes. On the
second place is Boris Tadic with expected percentage between 25% and 28 %.
These data are stable from the very beginning. The third one is Dragan
Marsicanin. Biggest oscillations are with this candidate. He started with very
low percentage, on the beginning he was not even considered as a serious
candidate, then his popularity suddenly increased on 18 percents.
Accordin to Bogosavljevic it seams like that Tomislav Nikolic and Boris Tadic will be fighting in second round and that in second round the turn out will decide. The turn out is in favor to whom ever gets to be against Nikolic, says Bogosavlejvic.
Observers in Belgrade find this year quite different
comparing with previous ones, although political affairs and intrigues, as
jasmine Stojanov Kovacevic, with Belgrade news agency BETA says, are constant
on Serbian political scene.
CUT 2 Track 0.12 In the last week before the elections
campaigns are streaming and it’s becoming to be visible in cities throughout
Serbia. Till now different political affairs that are everyday thing in Serbia
disrupted presidential campaign. (edit to) because citizens of Serbia couldn’t
concentrate on things that candidate say.
Almost four years after ousting Milosevic’ regime Serbian political and economical reality is very uncertain. Burdens of past, political-criminal links and wasted economy make Serbian transition tremendously difficult. But, according to people with whom UNMIK on AIR spoke needs of transition are portrayed in presidential campaign. Economical issues dominate in all candidates’ campaigns, says Radovan Borovic with Belgrade office of Radio Free Europe and demagogic stories are less obvious in their public appearances.
CUT 3 Track 0.05 All presidential candidates, not to
mention only those that are more important, are focused on European
integrations, economical system of Serbia, although those aren’t president’s
competence, but those topics are in away acceptable for electoral body. A proof
to that gives sudden growth of popularity of candidate Bogoljub Karic, Serbian
businessman, because his economic rhetoric is acceptable and persuasive for
voters.
Bogosavljevic with Strategic Marketing explains that voters in Serbia are constantly interested in their own life standard but also in fighting crimes and corruption. State questions are less important says Bogosavljevic, but same painful questions arise from time to time.
CUT 4 Track 0.23 we have also two painful questions and
those are Kosovo and den Haag, especially Kosovo. Kosovo isn’t always on the
list of top priorities but whenever something happens in Kosovo, the subject of
Kosovo becomes more interesting. It is more emotional then rational attitude
but that emotional attitude is not naïve. Whenever something explode in Kosovo,
like two months ago, all at once Kosovo goes up and becomes at least second
important issue for people.
But observers agree that in general politicians escape from
Kosovo subject. But, as Radovan sees it, Kosovo can always be some kind of
political joker.
CUT 5 Track 0,06 It is symptomatic that while ruling
coalition was introducing it’s candidate was also adopting a plan for Kosovo.
In a way it is a attempt to close this subject but at the same time all
candidates on their presentations call on the plan of Government of Serbia. I
would say that it is diplomatic maneuvers how not to directly interfere into
Kosovo issues but on the other hand to mention it. (edit to) Of course radicals
always use that rhetoric and it’s clear that they have their voters that are
committed to that policy. (edit to) I have a feeling that Kosovo issue doesn’t
dominate but every time when candidates feel that it’s convenient to raise
their ratings and when analyzes show that voters are interested in national
issues, candidates and their elections’ headquarters focus on Kosovo’ issues.
Also regarding so many unsolved Serbian foreign political
issues, international community has great concerns in the case if none of two
democratically considered candidates, Tadic and Marsicanin, win.
Radovan Borovic thinks that influences of IC are not that visible. US and EU are observing from a side, says Borovic.
CUT 6 Track 0.08 At the same time they are waiting for
the results that will influence on the position of EU towards Serbia and
Montenegro. If the candidate of democratic options wins there won’t be any
significant changes in policy but they’ll continue to follow the policy that
was led since October the 5th till the June of 2004. It means policy
that stands for peaceful resolution of Kosovo, for a dialogue between UNMIK,
Pristina and Belgrade. I think that IC is not that focused on presidential
candidates ant their position on Kosovo but on general policy of State Union of
Serbia and Montenegro towards IC, on cooperation with UNMIK.
Officials of EU restrain of giving direct message to voters
in Serbia claiming that they expect that Serbia will remain on democratic path.
But also candidates have their reasons to be cautious, says Jasmina Stojanov
Kovacevic.
CUT 7 Track 0.15 Because who ever becomes the president
of Serbia will be the president of all citizens of Serbia, it means he’ll be
the president both of voters of radical party, socialist party, of democratic
party and democratic party of Serbia and SPO, G17 Plus, Nova Serbia etc (edit
to) Comments like Tomislav Nikolic won’t be acceptable, although most probably he
is wouldn’t acceptable, could only provoke some other reactions of citizens of
Serbia, of those who still didn’t decide and whose voice is maybe needed to
democratic candidate in the second turn in order to Serbia to get a democratic
candidate
Back announce: First unofficial results will be published on
Sunday evening just couple of hours after closing election polls. Official
results Republican Electoral Commission will announce latest on the 17th
till 8 pm.