UNMIK ON AIR

IRAQ STAND OFF AND THE BALKANS

Wednesday February 19 2003

Luan Qorraj

Last weekend saw the biggest global anti-war demonstrations since the end of the Vietnam war, 31 years ago. Over 5 million people gathered all over world capitals to protest against possible American-led intervention in Iraq – threat which has already brought NATO allies to loggerheads, showed a deep rift between the general policies of EU member countries, put the UN security council members in completely opposite positions, and was even called, by some analysts : “The beginning of the new crusade”.

The positions of all sides seem to be quite firm - while the US and Britain are claiming that there has been enough evidence that Saddam is still toying with weapons of mass destruction, most of the UN countries say that more proof is needed – if there is to be an intervention. At the same time, Saddam Hussein is claiming that the sole purpose of the American plan to attack Iraq is the need for oil. Meanwhile the infamous terrorist leader, Osama Bin Laden, is calling Islamic believers into jihad, if Iraq is attacked.

Even the head of the UN Kofi Annan spoke on the subject saying that: "A (new) resolution might be necessary, but the council should decide when it should be passed”.

The general world opinion is , for the first time since the end of the cold war, clearly divided into two blocks: people who think that an Iraq intervention is perfectly reasonable and those who say that it would be an outrage.

Hajredin Kuqi, A Prishtina-based analyst, says that all of this turmoil may be happening because, in the world of global media coverage, no one managed to convince the majority of the audience that their side is right:

CUT 1 : I do not think that enough was done in propagating this war. Or, I should say that, a lot was done in the beginning but they were unable to support their claims afterwards. In the beginning there was propaganda that there are forbidden weapons, then that it may be a risk for global security. But it seems that with the visits from the inspectors they were unable to prove those things sufficiently. Then, because of the lack of proof, the theories show up, which can be speculations or not just speculations, about war for economic or other purposes. But above all I can say that neither the theory of global causes, nor the one about economic causes, has been able to convince general opinion.

So, where does that leave the Balkans, a part of the world which has been in the media spotlight for well over the past decade, where the decisive role in ending the bloodshed was given to the major world players and, a region that still, very much, depends on the decisions made by the world powers? According to an analyst from Belgrade, Stojan Cerovic, a possible intervention will not bring too many immediate changes on the ground in the Balkans:

CUT 2 : I do not think that the war itself would bring immediate visible consequences- besides taking away most of Western attention for a longer period of time. It is already being felt in Kosovo and the entire region, that the American attention is not dedicated here any more .

Hajredin Kuqi agrees but adds that, especially in the Kosovar case, a lot will depend on the manner of the intervention. Particularly, whether it will happen with, or without, a new UN resolution:

CUT 3 : If an intervention happens with a consensus it wouldn’t have too much impact on Kosovo. But if they intervene without a consensus , which would mean strictly with US and British troops - it would automatically cause a rift between the countries engaged in Kosovo. The lack of consensus between the main powers would create the possibility for Europe to remain more European- and that is where we fit in. While the Iraqi crisis would belong to the Americans and the British.

But what about the general opinion? Although any possible Iraq intervention will, for most people in the Balkans, be just another echo of a far-away war, the ruling classes will have to rethink whose side will they be taking in the general world shift. Stojan Cerovic from Belgrade says that , even though most ordinary Serbs are against any Iraq intervention, for emotional reasons, the government of the Serb capital will not cry out against it.

CUT 4: When it comes to the political class, the ruling elite, they are not as emotively hit and I suppose that they do not react or think in that way. But a part of them, the more conservative ones do- so do the forces who are more or less nationalistic And Djindjic and his people are, I suppose, much more pragmatic and , even if they do not like it, they do not think that is smart to mess with the United States after everything, after the conflicts with Milosevic and the rest…

While, as usual, in Kosovo there is widespread support towards everything that the USA is doing. Kosovar politicians have openly expressed their support for the United States, placing themselves in opposition to some of the most powerful EU nations. For Hajredin Kuqi , it is all perfectly understandable, considering the Kosovar mind frame:

CUT 5 : When it comes to Kosovo I believe that the Kosovar perception of the USA is a subjective perception, and we do not doubt them in any moment. I do not believe that there will be protests against war in Kosovo. While you know that the political forces and the Kosovar institutions have already supported it. The support isn’t only verbal or formal but I do believe that Kosovar citizens, within the small possibilities they have, are ready to support it. That is because they consider it, above all, a moral obligation towards the USA.

And the question remains: How will it all affect the people in the Balkans? Throughout history a lot of Balkan events were decided by outside factors. According to Stojan Cerovic, it may be the case again. Since, if there happens to be an intervention, the powers may decide to act quickly on settling down the Balkans, which, according to him, can even be positive:

CUT 6 : It is possible that, in that case, the west would not be interested in keeping up some sort of tension here but to just simply have it all off the agenda. To achieve some kind of a stable solution which maybe wouldn’t be especially good or sustainable but, which would get us out of the media at least for a while and stop us from being big news and something that would upset the public over there. That isn’t too good for us but , on the other hand , it isn’t always good if great powers become too dedicated to you and deal too much with your problems.

And with that note from Stojan Cerovic we will close today’s…..