Balkans

Slug: Russians to pull out of Balkans and NATO to reduce troop presence in Kosovo.

The announcement that Russian troops are to withdraw from the Balkans has met with mixed reactions. A sense of relief amongst Kosovo Albanians for whom Russia was a kind of fifth column for the ousted Milosevic regime, and a sense of betrayal amongst Serbs, who feel they failed in their duty to protect the non-Albanian population.

For Tirana based analyst, Remzi Lani, the Russian pullout couldn’t happen soon enough….

Remzi Lani: The pull back of Russian forces from the Balkans, besides being good news, should be seen as a dosage of realism, an admittance of Russian failure in the Balkans. It also a proof of the theory that Russian interests have now moved to other parts of the world and I foresee that Russia will be more present in the middle east.

But the announcement is not a surprise – Russia has already scaled down its troops to a mere 650 in Kosovo and this final phase is the result of a mutual agreement with NATO. The main reason behind the pullout, argues Dr. Andreas Heinemann Gruber, a specialist on the region who teaches at the University of Cologne, is the need to cut costs given urgent priorities elsewhere.

Dr. Andreas Heinemann Gruber: In Central Asia, Tajikistan for example, in the north of Afghanistan where they are trying to get a stake with some of the troops of the northern alliance, also in the caucuses where they are heavily involved in Abkhazia and southern Ossetia additionally they see that at the end Kosovo will be an independent state and Russia with its participation in KFOR would be indirectly promoting state independence of Kosovo under the auspices of KFOR and NATO and that somehow sends a message to Chechenya that they don’t want to see due to their domestic interests in keeping Chechenya inside Russia.

Moscow’s unwillingness to endorse Kosovo’s independence and the traditionally close links between the two Slav orthodox countries are other reasons for Albanian animosity towards Russia. Remzi Lana again.

Remzi Lana: It is clear that the fall of Milosevic regime was the fall of the last fortress of Russian allies in the Balkans. This is also proven by the fact that Milosevic’s wife- who is seeked by Serbian authorities herself is in Moscow- In other words Russia has nothing more to do in the Balkans since it has no more partners.

Dr. Gruber disagrees. Russian troops were well appreciated by their KFOR counterparts, he says, and their withdrawal from the region simply means Kosovo or Bosnia no longer represent a vital interest for Moscow.

Dr. Andreas Heinemann Gruber: Under Yeltsin, the Russian military was still somehow influenced by the soviet legacy and that they should have a stake in certain regional conflicts whereas Putin is very pragmatic and simply looks at the question, what is in there for Russia, what is beneficial for Russia and from a cost-benefit analysis there is nothing to win for Russia in Kosovo or in Bosnia.

An assessment that might well be shared by the United States. It’s only a question of time, adds Gruber, before the US pulls out of the Balkan conflicts, seeing much more vital interests in the Middle East, and perhaps Pakistan and Indonesia as well. And for Washington too, he says, Kosovo isn’t as important today as a base as it was 4 years ago.

Dr. Andreas Heinemann Gruber: They have gotten in the meantime, with the new NATO members, those that supported them in the Iraq war, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, so they have a lot of additional places they can use apart from Kosovo, the situation was different in summer 99.

Meantime, NATO is also likely to announce significant troops reductions – an estimated 10,000 men are to be sent home. Another indication that Kosovo has lost in strategic importance, says Gruber. A military presence is required, but not against any threat from Serbia, he adds, but homegrown ones. The question is not how many but what kind of troops.

Dr. Andreas Heinemann Gruber: For these kind of operations you simply need special forces, people who are not contract soldiers for two years or so, I ‘ve seen it in Kosovo as well, how differently KFOR brigades perform for example the British who had experience in northern Ireland, they have performed in certain situations simply much more professionally than others who were simply contract soldiers. It is not the question of the size of the KFOR troops, its more a question of the quality of the troops.

And despite all the current mudslinging against the international community and its role in Kosovo, Tirana analyst Remzi Lana hopes the international military presence remains in the Balkans.

Remzi Lana: What is important, in my opinion, is the fact that an international presence will be kept in Kosovo and in the Balkans in general- and the balance of trust between the US and the European powers will be kept.

A balance, which looks increasingly fragile at the moment. As for the Kosovars, says Dr. Gruber, they will have to come to terms with the fact that they are in Europe and that ultimately their fate remains linked with and will likely be determined by European powers.

Dr. Andreas Heinemann Gruber: They are so heavily dependent on the EU and will remain for the foreseeable future whereas Poland and Romania are in a slightly different position because they have quite strong armies in terms of manpower, also of the willingness to spend for defense. And I don’t think any of the Balkan countries will match that, and Kosovo clearly not.

And that comment from Dr. Gruber Heinemann of the University of Cologne ends this edition of UNMIK ON AIR. Thanks for listening.